Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst of HashKey Group, believes that the current cryptocurrency market has a short-term demand for exploration; in the long term, it will still rise as the liquidity of the US dollar increases.
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The yen interest rate hike and the end of the "carry trade" have limited actual impact on cryptocurrencies. Buffett borrowed Japan's ultra-low interest funds to buy the core assets of Japanese funds (the five major trading companies), which caused the current round of Japanese stock market rise. At present, this carry trade has shown signs of reversal due to the interest rate hike, and many international funds (including Mrs. Watanabe) will sell their international assets to repay part of the loans from Japanese banks. However, the main targets of this transaction before were assets such as US bonds and core stocks, which had nothing to do with digital currencies.
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The Federal Reserve may hold an emergency meeting and carry out extraordinary interest rate cuts. During the "312" period in 2020, the US stock market was circuit-breaker 4 times, and the Federal Reserve held a special meeting and carried out extraordinary interest rate cuts. If there are some dangers that we cannot see in this round of financial crisis or geopolitics, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will carry out extraordinary interest rate cuts again. If this happens, the market will achieve a "V-shaped reversal" because it exceeds expectations, but the probability of this situation is low.
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The Middle East war is shrouded in the shadow of the market, and the market is still waiting for the "first shot". After one of the leaders of Hamas was assassinated in Tehran, Iran, Iran claimed that it would launch a retaliatory action. The financial market is pricing in the escalation of this regional conflict. But whether the "Arc of Resistance" wants to escalate the war at this stage, the market is still waiting for Iran's own actions.
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The US PMI index did not point to a recession, and the market's logic of "trading recession" slowed down slightly. According to the service industry survey of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US ISM service industry PMI rose from 48.8 in June, the lowest since April 2020, to 51.4 in July, higher than the market expectation of 51, indicating a rebound in US service industry activities. The recession concerns caused by the non-agricultural employment data do not feel fully confirmed. Therefore, market sentiment has also recovered slightly.
The release of short-term panic sentiment has caused a violent rebound in the Japanese and Korean stock markets today, driving the global financial market to "stabilize". But the logic of trading recession has not yet been lifted, and the market is still waiting for further signals.
However, in the long run, if the trend of the dollar continues to weaken, the pricing of all risky assets will rise accordingly, and Bitcoin will be the asset that reacts the fastest.